A War Expectation

I talk about an expectation that we will probably see more regional wars, but there is something that I take for granted and do not mention enough.  Change brings stresses and  stressors that can hardly be foreseen.  Who says India will not go bananas and continue with small war against China regarding the border differences.  Who is to say that Venezuela does not end up shooting its neighbor Guyana, because of border and oil concession stress.  Who is to say that the Phillipines remain reasonable and refrain from firing indiscriminately at China regarding fish?

Smoothie made a comment on his blog where he says we are already in ww3 and it has already been won.  It may be so and made me think of the fact that not all wars from now on will be empire wars.  Like 404 is fut and clapped out and has lost mostly all influence on what it may still consider a front line, so is empire fut and lost and do not know where their front line is.  All that does not mean that all the problems, differences, border disputes, water disputes, resource disputes etc., are suddenly gone.  It may mean that we have a better negotiation and diplomatic toolset to solve the problems, many of which stem from colonial times.

To cut to the chase I think the risk of a major ww3 depiction war may have dissipated somewhat.  If I speak about regional wars it is less in terms of who will win and more in terms of how will the warring parties solve their issues.  There is no longer a hegemon that stands ready to exploit all sides.    Yet we have to keep in mind that the western leaders are both insane and they have a good instinct for self-pŕotection.  Watch out for sneak grenades.

We’ve just seen how the West started  bowing backwards if Putin tells them to quit it.  No, never will there be a NATO soldier in the Ukraine – they’re even going to write that down (a little sarcasm of course).   To be sure and true to their nature, they will continue with the belligerence and disrespect, but much of their spunkyness is in the process of being bled off.

The reasons are manyfold.  Infighting is happening, they are tired of not having any good news to report, careers are showing stresses and strains,  It is becoming coldly clear that they have no ability to fight Russia or China or simultaneously in some fever dream, and they know that they are being mocked even by Netanyahu, and that takes the biscuit!.

So while we generally are in a rock and hard place position, depending on the de jour of the day,  it is a good thought that just maybe these western leadeŕ trolls are too scared for ww3.