2023 through to 2024

The most uncomplicated way to say it, is … we, our planet, our world, demands placed on leaders and ourselves as functional inhabitants of this planet, have all changed.  2023 is the year of awareness, where most became aware of the fall of the rules-based order.  Here we can only refer to the various summits where the news was distributed and the hope for different structures was enthusiastically discussed and ran high.  (It is still running high!).  Think of the SPIEF meeting, the BRICS meeting, the Latin America CELAC, the Russia Africa meets, the picking up of Belt and Road after Covid, the Eastern Economic Forum, and many more.  The world is talking to one another.  2022 was the time when this rules-based order started facing direct challenges. 2024 will be decisions and forward movement and momentum to embrace the change not seen in 100 years, and there will be chaos while hammering in new structures against the badly damaged rules-based thingy falling down down like a clapped-out old second-hand vehicle with nothing left to lose!

The turning point and expanding possibilities for everyone will be clearly visible.

Don’t underestimate the coming year.  We are facing major issues and challenges.  We will not, at the end of the year have an equal and orderly multipolar world and universally beneficial and inclusive economic opportunities, but we will be more visibly on our way.

“An equal and orderly multipolar world is one in which all countries, regardless of size, are treated as equals, hegemonism, and power politics are rejected, and democracy is truly promoted in international relations. To keep the progress toward greater multipolarity generally stable and constructive, the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter must be observed by all, the universally recognized, basic norms governing international relations must be upheld by all, and true multilateralism must be practiced. A universally beneficial and inclusive economic globalization is one that meets the common needs of all countries, especially developing countries, and properly addresses the development imbalances between and within countries resulting from the global allocation of resources. It is important to resolutely oppose the abuse of the concept of security, oppose all forms of unilateralism and protectionism, firmly promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, overcome the structural problems hindering the healthy development of the world economy, and make economic globalization more open, inclusive, balanced and beneficial to all.” Xi Jinping.

We started the year with one war.  We end the year with two.  The end for neither of the two is currently in sight.  We also know that this world can’t continue with a war-making paradigm.  Whether you subscribe to climate change or not, whether you see the part that is a hoax and the part that is a normal planetary process, or whether you think during some of those dark nights of the soul, that we, humans have to be involved in some way or another, if only just for the massive changes that we’re creating.  Think only of land and the toxic load on that.  We had our full say on Covid and the toxicity, but we don’t say too much about land degradation as one example.  We may have a hand in this change, we may not.  I simply look at what China is physically doing and what Russia is physically doing and then I feel I have a handle on affairs. Both China and Russia are doing remedial works, in the case of China, massive!  In the case of Russia, it is not so massive but they have the forests that do remediation for them.  My mind changed somewhat when I realized that the permafrost in the other colder regions was really melting.  We can live without war on our planet.  We have a lot of productive work to do.

Now how is this global space of ours going to transform?  Change is a strange thing.  One can plan to the 9th degree but plans sometimes do not work out as envisaged.  So, be ready for many surprises of the positive and negative kind.

In the past year, we had a very pleasant surprise.  In March, Beijing mediated the agreement to resume diplomatic relations – broken seven years ago – between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which opened the doors for Riyadh and Tehran to join the BRICS11.  (BRICS10).

De-dollarization is running at a fast clip, faster than what I expected.  Iran is all in of course.  The strategic relationship between China and Russia deepened in 2023, with two meetings between their presidents. Trade between Russia and China hit a record high this year, reaching US$218 billion in November, up 26.7% year-on-year and with 95% bilaterally, now in rubles and yuan, taking another step towards de-dollarization between their countries.  For the first time in history, most of China’s foreign trade (49%) was carried out in yuan. The country signed an agreement with Brazil to conduct trade and investments in local currencies and now has similar agreements with more than 20 countries. Beijing also carried out currency swaps with Argentina, which paid installments of its debt to the IMF in yuan, something unprecedented in the fund’s history. China reached an agreement to buy oil from Iraq – its third largest supplier – in yuan, and made the first purchase of this strategic commodity in digital yuan. However, the yuan’s share of world trade is still low, having reached less than 4% between January and September.  Undoubtedly, China’s great technological accomplishment in 2023 was achieving the domestic manufacture of the 7-nanometer microchip. Huawei surprised the world with its new Mate 60 Pro cell phone. Without announcing it, the Chinese company used a 7nm chip manufactured by its subsidiary HiSilicon with technology from SMIC, also Chinese. While still lagging behind the most advanced 3nm microprocessors, China achieved this goal in just 5 years.  And from Russia, the events run by Roscongress, in Delhi, Mumbai & Bangalore this month were preparation for the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2024 (Jun 5-8) and pointed to the 2023 trade total of $50bn being surpassed easily next year.

2024 could be the year when the West’s liberal elites lose control of the world order

In the 20th century – with its wars, revolutions, colonial possessions, and national liberations – the world was cut up bizarrely and illogically. The military-ideological confrontation of the second half of the century was gradually transformed into a global framework. With its help, all collisions should, in theory, have been resolved. But they were not. On the contrary, as soon as the foundations began to wobble, they recurred with renewed vigor.

The current proliferation of conflicts is a symptom of the weakening of the modern international power structure. This was exercised in the form of a “liberal world order” (more recently called a “rules-based order”).

In the 20th century – with its wars, revolutions, colonial possessions and national liberations – the world was cut up bizarrely and illogically. The military-ideological confrontation of the second half of the century was gradually transformed into a global framework. With its help, all collisions should, in theory, have been resolved. But they were not. On the contrary, as soon as the foundations began to wobble, they recurred with renewed vigor.

The current proliferation of conflicts is a symptom of the weakening of the modern international power structure. – Fyodor Lukyanov

The ROW is talking to one another

Just thinking about BRICS – from January 1, 2024, the G7 will become a poverty club and BRICS will develop to be the rich kids on the block.  This is a massive change.  Banks will develop.  The multipolar world does not have sufficient banking facilities at the moment and development is greatly needed.

Russia is arranging three sports internationals for the coming year  … an alternative sports arena alongside the conventional international stage, Games of the Future will introduce several new events and tournaments as well as modern computer games.  The Valdai discussion club hosts major think tank-type gatherings and the Roscogress is amazing in terms of the number of international congresses and conferences that it hosts.

China is equally busy.  Their major intention which they followed through on for 2023, was recovering the Belt and Road project after borders were opened post-Covid.   The Belt and Road’s initial set of meetings was very business-like.  In the new year, I’m expecting massive growth.

The wars – we always believe that the SMO is not done until NATO is done and out.  Are we going to be proven right with the NATO move to the east?  Overall, the effect of the israel war on Palestine will be more visible.  Israel is toast as a country (if it even is a country) and the US, while it did not do anything in the UN to support a cease-fire and continued supplying weapons, will never, in our 100 years of changes, recover its so-called importance or so-called leadership.  Nobody is impressed with its so-called democracy© and in fact nobody wants to have anything much to do with the US and the collective West.  They cannot even do much regarding Yemen, but keejerked and declared a bunch of sanctions.  Sanctions as a unilateral tool are also losing their luster and there are so many now, that there is no possible way that sanctions can be enforced.  Most of Latin America is feverishly busy breaking sanctions, Russia buys shadow fleets, China moves stuff across the Russia/China border and the North Korean border.  Sanctions as a regime are falling apart and the World Trade Organization has its problems as nobody is interested in the western games being played there.

So, if we say that 2024 could be the year when the West’s liberal elites lose control of the world order, we may be thinking in the right direction, although we are in for a messy time.  (I am not considering nukes).

Strangely, I am excited!  It’s been a few years since that happened and a new year has me excited.  I feel there is progress.

I wish you all a fortunate, lovely, positive, creative, and uplifting new year!  Don’t make wishes, make visions!