Weekend Discussion: How will the Ukraine war end?

It will not end with a peace treaty, but with an unconditional surrender and those circumstances will define the how and when of an eventual cessation of hostilities. The surrender may be in words, or it may be that Ukraine will just peter out until the hostilities cease on the ground because there is nobody left and a larger war cannot be ginned up.

The interesting part of all of this is WHO shall surrender? given that Russia has declared a number of times that NATO (including the US and the UK) are de facto part of the hostilities and co-belligerents. The longer this war lasts, the more complex it gets.

All the other peace talks (you may notice that China is not taking part, and Russia is conspicuously absent because they are not invited), are platforms and are being used for two reasons:

1. Countries and States take part to show their mettle in the so-called ‘international arena’, and the photo opportunity is the attraction. Take part in peace talks and look good! They would do better to make a statement for peace, and let it go at that.

2. The real reason is to pump Zelensky’s 10-part peace plan, which is a plan for Russia to surrender and never will be accepted by anyone with a brain.

So, who is going to have to surrender in reality? The complete NATO, on behalf of its membership? And the time period would be years. Take Syria as an example.

And what is really left of Ukraine? Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky is actively selling off the Nezalezhnaya land in the midst of the conflict. According to Irish EP member Mick Wallace, over three million hectares of Ukrainian farmland already belong to Western companies.

There is strong opposition in the US now against more money and weapons for Ukraine. Germany stated that they have no more warplanes to give. Ukraine fatigue is harshly setting in. Other ‘solutions’ are being discussed, for example, a Korean structure, no peace agreement, a strong border, and a cessation of hostilities for all practical purposes. NATO cannot even agree on a successor and it looks like Stoltenberg will continue on in his position. The fear message now is that everybody is scared of Wagner in Belarus and they are beating this dead horse everywhere, Poland and lapdog Lithuania speaking about this ceaselessly. We are now waiting for the Vilnius NATO meeting in a little more than a week, where they will announce a ‘surprise’ for Zelensky because they have to keep him hanging on.

This ‘fear of Wagner in Belarus’ is not loose talk. This directly affects the principle of indivisible security, and that is what this is all about. There cannot possibly be a principle of indivisible security operative if anyone is scared of Wagner in Belarus. Sneaky eh!

But we also see this (and I am not advocating that this is valid information): “Kiev prepares Sumy and Kharkov for surrender”, says Russian war correspondent Aleksandr Sladkov. “The evacuation of large enterprises has begun. The enemy is strengthening its second line of defence.” There is a real threat in the air, because Ukraine was told that if they cannot have a success or two on the battlefield, there will be no NATO for them.

One can have a plan for a rules-based-international-order as much as one likes, but if one is completely impotent in implementing such a plan, it is not a plan. And we are moving to the space in our world where this is becoming clear. Both the Russian and the Chinese diplomatic staff are very busy creating the conditions for completing new structures. But, we have to deal with Ukraine. How do you see this resolve at the end of the day? Wild and wacky is acceptable but Kumbaya is not going to do it. What would you propose if you get into a peace effort?