Peace Train Ukraine: Potemkin Villages All! (Update)

The ‘always non-authoritative’ Wikipedia is good enough for now.

In politics and economics, a Potemkin village (Russian: потёмкинские деревни, romanized: potyómkinskiye derévni) is a construction (literal or figurative) whose purpose is to provide an external façade to a situation, to make people believe that the situation is better than it is. The term comes from stories of a fake portable village built by Grigory Potemkin, former lover of Empress Catherine II, solely to impress the Empress duringher journey to Crimea in 1787. The original story was that Potemkin erected phony portable settlements along the banks of the Dnieper River in order to impress the Russian Empress and foreign guests. The structures would be disassembled after she passed, and re-assembled farther along her route to be seen again.

Let us board the peacetrain and briefly analyze the inhabitants of the highly fashionable rail cars using a simple scale of 1 to 10, 10 having feasibility.  To join a car on the peace train is today’s opportunity to become famous and be the flavor of the month and look out the train windows at the Potemkin Villages en route.

Rail Car Ukraine.  They are not talking about a peace initiative.  In reality, they have legislated that they will not talk about peace while Putin is at the helm of Russia.  So, they are hoping against hope while Potemkining (yes, I know such a word does not exist) the world that only some more weapons and another army and much more money and a highly advertised ‘one day to come’ counter-offensive will get Russia to declare that Russia has lost the war.

The Potemkin village constructed is that Ukraine is winning although the fear of the West that they have lost, is now in the open.  Hence, Zelenski has been made operative again and the G7 meeting is back to reviving the previous meme “We will support Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

We’ve had an UPDATE here as well:   The president of the European Commission on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Japan has called on the members not to recognize any peace initiatives which envision equal negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.  Zelensky’s “peace formula” or bust!

Feasibility Scale 0/10 unless some lose their heads (not figuratively).

Rail Car Africa.  South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Tuesday six African leaders plan to travel to Russia and Ukraine “as soon as is possible” to help find a resolution to the war, claiming that both Putin and Zelensky have agreed to receive the mission and the African heads of state, in both Moscow and Kyiv.

Ramaphosa told a presser that he had held separate phone calls with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine and presented an initiative drawn up by Zambia, Senegal, the Republic of Congo, Uganda, Egypt and South Africa.

“I agreed with both President Putin and President Zelensky to commence with preparations for engagements with the African heads of state. We’re hoping we will have intensive discussions,” he said.

Rail Car Africa wants to engage, they say.  With Ramposa at the lead, it is like taking dietary advice from the morbidly obese coming from a dark country.  Ramaphosa was rolled by the US state with their accusations that South Africa provided weapons to Russia.  This is the reason for the rolling and the coercive threats and methods used by the US:  “South Africa is the largest U.S. trade partner in Africa, with a total two-way goods trade of $17.8 billion in 2019. Approximately 600 American businesses operate in South Africa, and many of those use South Africa as a regional headquarters. South Africa qualifies for preferential trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act as well as the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences trade preference program.”

Congo, Uganda, and Egypt are the also-rans.  If there was any reality in this train car, the African Union would have been involved ‘en Bloc’.  I’ve seen some of the early discussions and one of the points discussed, is another referendum in the Donbass.

This car will soon derail as it only wants to rattle along – the flavor of the month, while potemkining at the demands of the failing hegemon.

Feasibility Scale 3/10 and that is given only because some delegates will learn something for themselves.  This Potemkin village is that there is something whilst there is only a rattle.

Rail Car Brazil.

Although Lula Da Silva spoke peace and said his message is peace, his car derailed or someone forgot to hook it to the train.  He wanted to bring together a group of countries that would talk about peace.  I’ve heard nothing since.

Brazil so far has not even started the construction of its Potemkin village.

Feasibility as things stand now:  0/10. 

Rail Car China

At least we have a solid approach, a plan that is written and negotiations have commenced.  Yet, Maria Zakharova said, not unkindly and not disrespectfully, that the plan is the easy part.  Nevertheless, we hear China talk about security and indivisible security, a concept completely missing inside the other cars.  Given much time (for Engine Russia to complete its objectives), there could be something here and it is not a Potemkin village.  China.is.dead.serious and I expect that they may tease out some issues, perhaps previously not important.

Feasibility as things stand now:  4/10.  Future feasibility increases.

UPDATE:  Just in:  Let’s hook another train car.  Saudi Arabia is ready to mediate to resolve the crisis in Ukraine, the crown prince of the kingdom said at the Arab League summit

Train Engine Russia

Russia will listen to any substantive peace plan and participate in any substantive peace negotiations.  (It is so that there is none currently.)  This has to include demilitarization and denazification.  Unstated, NATO must move back.  Russia needs to be secure and security must be indivisible, i.e., security for one cannot impinge on security of another.  In the meantime, you can set your watch by the daily military updates:  Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation.

Last night, the Russian Armed Forces launched a strike by high-precision long-range sea-based weapons against the enemy’s stations and training centres, as well as depots storing ammunition, weapons, and hardware of foreign origin. The purpose of the strike has been achieved. All the assigned targets have been engaged. The strikes disrupted the supply, training, and formation of reserves of Ukrainian troops to carry out tasks in the areas of combat operations.

This is the fourth consecutive night of these operations and is no Potemkin Village.

Feasibility  8/10 – two points left to black swans or otherwise completely unanticipated events.