“Quiet division” of Ukraine or World War

Translated from Rostislav Ishchenko Russia Today News Agency columnist

In Dmitry Medvedev’s statement about the “quiet division” of Ukraine, the passage about the unacceptability of Polish attempts to create a confederation or union with Kiev is particularly noteworthy.

Despite the fact that formally the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council fears possible infringement of the rights of Ukrainians and expresses doubts about their desire to live in the same state as Poles, the practice of recent years shows that Euro-oriented citizens of Ukraine, and such are now the majority there, are unlikely to be very upset by such a development.

First, formally, Poland is not talking about the takeover of Ukraine, but about an equal association.

Secondly, for many years now, Ukrainians have been trying to integrate privately into the EU through Poland.

Third, the current government and its supporting segments of the population consider unification with Poland as a rescue option from Russia, in the event of the final defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the loss of Ukraine’s ability to further resist.

Actually, from the context of Medvedev’s statement, it is clear that he himself does not hope for a mass protest of Ukrainians against unification with Poland. He himself says that the” quiet division ” of Ukraine with Poland and other countries is better than Ukraine in NATO and the world war. How to combine the rejection of the Ukrainian-Polish confederation and a favorable attitude to the “quiet partition”?

Earlier, I wrote that the unification of Ukraine with Poland (no matter in a federation, confederation or unitary state) cannot suit Russia because it allows the successor state to put forward claims to all the territories that have ever been part of Ukraine, including Crimea (Kiev, after all, has not formally abandoned its claims to Ukraine). sovereignty over the peninsula). Moreover, such an association actually means the admission of a belligerent Ukraine to NATO.

Poland is a NATO member, Ukraine is at war with Russia. The united State of Poland and Ukraine will be a NATO member at war with Russia. Even if negotiations between Moscow and Warsaw on the settlement of the situation begin immediately after the formal unification of Ukraine and Poland, up to the conclusion of a peace agreement, we will be confronted by the troops of the united state on the demarcation line.

The danger is also great because the Ukrainian elite will insist on equal access to power in the united state with Poland. At the same time, if the Polish elite sees unification as a chance to restore the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth within the borders of the XVIII century, as the first step on this path, then the Ukrainian elite sees in unification first of all an opportunity to send Poland, and then NATO, to war against Russia for Ukrainian interests. Consequently, the Ukrainians use their access to power to sabotage the peace agreement, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine (which will not go anywhere with unification) to provoke provocations on the contact line in order to continue fighting.

It is easy to understand that the danger of sliding into a nuclear war in such a development of events increases dramatically, especially since the United States is following the path of escalating an armed confrontation with Russia and China, both in the European and Asian-Pacific theaters of military operations.

The Americans openly plan to dramatically strengthen their strike missile fist in Europe, and also obtained Japan’s consent to deploy new missile systems on its territory, including hypersonic ones that have not yet entered service with the US army. Russia has already warned that it is ready to lift the moratorium on the deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missile systems in the European part of the country and in the Far East.

We are talking about the possibility of a large-scale build-up of relatively short-range nuclear weapons, which correspondingly have a short flight time, which dramatically reduces the amount of time allowed for decision-making in the event of an emergency.

Thus, the provocative behavior of the Ukrainian elites is superimposed on the equally provocative madness of the American elites.

Against this background, Medvedev speaks not only with a warning about what should not be done (it is not necessary to create a Ukrainian-Polish confederation), but also puts forward a concrete proposal for a compromise (everyone is satisfied) option (the very “quiet section”).

The keyword here is section. It won’t be quiet – there will still be a lot of screeching.

The division is not a voluntary association – it is a forced action of neighbors in relation to the state that has lost its subjectivity and has become a threat to them. In the event of a partition, Ukraine, as a subject of international law, disappears without succession, and its territories become part of neighboring states on the basis of their agreements with each other. Such agreements exclude the possibility of making territorial claims in the future.

In order to reduce the number of citizens who are disloyal to the new authorities, the agreement may include a provision on the voluntary choice of a new country of residence by Ukrainian citizens from among all participants in the section, with the subsequent exchange of the determined population.

When implementing the partition option, Russia avoids conflict with NATO, moves the border to the West, and receives international recognition of territorial changes. Poland, Hungary, and Romania get the opportunity to return territories that once belonged to them. Euro-oriented Ukrainians get the opportunity to integrate into the EU not only personally, but even with a certain piece of territory. The Russian population of Ukraine, also with its territories, joins Russia.

Even the United States can get a certain bonus due to the fact that it will get rid of the European crisis and will be able to fully focus on the Asia-Pacific region. Only Ukraine’s creditors will suffer, but it is unlikely that anyone in their right mind expects Kiev to return something, to someone, sometime.

However, Medvedev states, at this stage, an agreement with the collective West has not been reached. I would add that official negotiations have not started either. So far, there is an informal sounding of positions.

Medvedev’s statement indicates that Russia has decided to bring the discussion of this issue to the public level. Moscow’s actions are explained by the fact that Ukraine is close to a military catastrophe. At the same time, the United States is trying to accelerate this catastrophe by forcing Kiev to launch a senseless offensive against prepared defenses in a pre-announced location.

In the absence of agreements on the division of Ukraine, a military catastrophe should cause a sufficiently rapid advance of Russian troops deep into the territory of Ukraine, which will force Poland and Kiev to urgently decide on the unification regime. That is, a confederation can be proclaimed at any time. So that no one has any illusions about the unacceptability of such a step for Moscow, and a similar statement was made, accurately describing all the threats and putting forward a compromise proposal.

Well, the choice of the author of the offer is not accidental. On the one hand, Dmitry Medvedev is not the president, prime minister, or foreign minister, so this seems to be his personal opinion. On the other hand, he is the only person in Russia who has the status of Putin’s deputy (even if on the Security Council). That is, the opinion is no longer entirely private.

Western “friends and partners” have a lot to think about.