Russia and China: What’s next after Wang Ji’s visit

First a small photo essay of the visit:

A real Bro handshake!

Now let me ask, do these people look happy, and comfortable in one another’s company and when have you seen Wang Ji smile in formal photographs?

In the Wang Yi and Nikolai Patrushev talks the core information is of course not stated.  But what is stated is the state of the relationship.  They discussed the current international strategic situation and vowed to work together to practice true multilateralism.    They also agreed to uphold peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, oppose the introduction of Cold War mentality, bloc confrontation, and ideological conflict.

The overwhelming result was stated by Lavrov:

💬FM Lavrov: The Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China continue to closely coordinate their foreign policy efforts and advocate the formation of a more open, democratic and fair system of international relations 🇷🇺🇨🇳

🔗 https://t.co/Tr6giXqWGz pic.twitter.com/FJch22RDsb

— MFA Russia 🇷🇺 (@mfa_russia) February 22, 2023

The purpose of Wang Ji’s visit was not singular.

• He went in support of Russia at the first anniversary of the SMO although this was not explicitly stated.  China wants to be the mediator so they choose their words very carefully, but their actions speak loudly.
• He also went to further strengthen talks and methods on a new financial system (did you pick up that Iraq is going to trade with China, settled directly in yuan?)
• Finally, as is customary, to prepare for a Xi Jinping visit to Moscow which is set for 20th April.

We expect Xi Jinping to make a statement or speech on the conflict in Ukraine on February 23 or 24 – Belarusian President Lukashenko

This relationship is different.  There is an expectation that Russia and China will sign a formal military alliance or some kind of defense pact.  I don’t think so, for a few reasons.  What makes us think that this does not exist already?  An announcement of such a formal alliance would be incendiary in today’s atmosphere of war.  The parties may have the preparation and even full documents complete, to sign at the right time, or not to make public at all until the right time.  They may have chosen a path of strategic ambiguity while they play wargames themselves and with others, refer South Africa currently in navy war games with China and Russia.

For both parties peaceful relations are a very precious and historically a blessing.  It is only at the start of the 1970s that they buried their own hatchet.  And now they find themselves united in multipolarity and multilateralism and in a war in all domains against imperialism from the combined west who wants to own and control them as lackeys.  They also find themselves in a position of leadership for the rest of the world engaged in the very same civilizational resistance.

So what is next? given that we are without a new START treaty, and we have Russia and China pulling together in close solidarity and friendship in a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era.  This relationship is based on a “solid political, economic, and cultural foundation, as well as calmness and sobriety from reviewing past experiences”. Wang Yi.

Is this not the trend of the times and the aspirations of most countries and even most individuals?

Next, absent a formal declaration of war (and really many declarations have already been made in words and deeds) we will make war in many domains in the way that we are able to individually, while not under a gun.  What is at stake is two top-level levers.  We need to push back the west to its physical and social borders, and out of our lands.  As weapons, we have Russia dealing with NATO, and they will win.  And we have the new financial system that is being built as we keenly watch every little step.  What will tumble first?  NATO and all that goes with it, or the current dominating financial system?  In the meantime, there is a mass of smaller levers in play.

China has joined this (absent a formal declaration) war. They are building a peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict while the west is adding fuel to the fire.  Their peace plan will include concepts of security for countries and indivisible security and security balance.  The Chinese red lines in this world war are if Russia itself is in danger (which it is arguably not, currently).  Then China will not stay idle.  If China is attacked, Russia will not stay idle.  If an attack comes to say Iran, I believe Iran will ask for help from Russia and China.  If a SCO or BRICS or ASEAN country is attacked, I believe many of us will not stay idle.  Let us hope and pray we do not ever get to such a circumstance because what is real and on the ground today, is that everyone is preparing for war, except the Latin American and Caribbean countries who have declared these lands a zone of peace.

Keep working brothers and sisters in arms.  If Russia and China manage to keep us out of a larger conflagration, it will be the miracle of our times.